What's up with Obama?

As it looks likely we'll see an escalation of troops in Afghanistan connected to a commitment to get out,  there's much speculation on why Obama is more hawkish on this issue than might be expected.   I've read three plausible theories:

1. He was personally and strongly effected by 9/11 and so bought into the mission to remove a base for Al Queda.

2. He felt, as a liberal democrat, he needed to demonstrate foreign policy tough mindedness to win the primary against Hilary and the election against McCain, so Afghanistan was the least unpalatable place to flex his (our) macho.

3. He has been convinced the surge actually worked in Iraq and may be necessary to salvage a potential disaster in Afghanistan.

All three seem plausible (looking at it from his point of view.)  However, the AlQueda argument doesn't seem to hold any longer with most of Al Queda hiding safely in Pakistan.   The flex your muscles argument is more about him keeping his commitments than what's good for the country.   The surge argument could be considered,  but I believe that the circumstances in Afghanistan are substantially different than Iraq.  Taliban probably have much more persistence and staying power to just out wait any security gains from a surge than the Iraqi opposition.  We also don't know what will happen in Iraq when we leave.   Bottom line is the population in Afghanistan doesn't like outsiders, so we are providing the foil which provides the taliban their support.

Obama:   swallow your past commitments, and get out!   Do you hear me????